A provision store can be full of customers from morning to night and still leave its owner with nothing at the end of the year. It's one of the commonest stories in Nigerian retail: the shop is always busy, the shelves are always stocked, and the owner still borrows to restock in January.

The reason is built into the trade. Provisions are things people buy often, know the price of, and can get from three other shops on the same street. That means thin profit on each item. A store like this doesn't succeed by selling. It succeeds by not leaking.

Here are the places it leaks, and what to do about each.

Know your twenty

In almost every provision store, a small number of products bring in most of the money: a few brands of noodles, milk, sugar, beverages, soft drinks, detergent, bread, water.

Find yours. Go through a month of your sales book and add up sales per item. The top twenty or thirty are your business. Everything else is there to make the shop feel complete.

Those top items get special treatment. They never run out. You know their exact cost today, not last month. You count them every week. If a customer walks in for noodles and milk and you have neither, they don't come back for the sardines.

Buy by what sold, not by what looks empty

Most small stores restock by walking the shelves and buying whatever looks low, plus whatever the distributor's rep is pushing this week.

Buy from your records instead. If you sold 40 cartons of a brand last month, you need roughly ten a week. For your top items, set a level at which you reorder, so the next delivery lands before the shelf empties. The sum is simple, and it's worked through in reorder level formula, with a worked naira example.

Be careful with "buy ten, get one free". It is a good deal only if you can sell all eleven before they expire and without starving your fast sellers of cash. Money tied up in a slow carton is money that isn't buying the carton that would have sold twice this week.

Price from your real cost

Prices move constantly, and a store that keeps selling at last month's price is giving its restocking money away.

Every time a delivery arrives at a new cost, reprice what is already on the shelf too. Include transport and loading in the cost. And know the difference between adding 15% to cost and making 15% on the sale, because they aren't the same. That's explained in markup vs margin.

Put prices on the shelves. It saves your attendant from guessing and saves your customers from being charged whatever someone feels like.

Credit will sink you quietly

"Book it down for me" is how a provision store turns into a lending business that charges no interest and keeps no accounts.

You can't refuse everyone, because some of your best customers are salaried people who pay on the 28th. So make it a system:

  • A short list of people who can take goods on credit, chosen by you.
  • A limit for each.
  • A debtors' book with one page per person, where every item taken and every payment is written with the date.
  • No new credit for anyone who hasn't cleared last month.
  • Staff can't add names to the list.

Add up the debtors' book at the end of each month. Many owners are shocked by the total the first time.

Watch the dates

Provisions expire, and a tin you paid for and then threw away has cost you the profit on several you sold.

Whenever you fill a shelf, bring the old stock forward and put the new stock behind. Once a month, check the slowest shelves for anything within three months of its date and move it: put it by the counter, bundle it, cut the price a little. A small profit now beats a full loss later. More on that in slow-moving stock: what to do with goods that won't sell.

Never sell expired goods. Beyond the legal and health risk, a neighbourhood shop lives on trust, and one bad tin of milk travels fast.

Small things that add up

Sachets, sweets, biscuits, seasoning cubes and single sticks of anything are where shrinkage hides. Nobody steals a carton of sugar. Plenty of people, including children of the house and your own staff, take a biscuit.

You don't need to be harsh about it. You need to be able to see it. If something is taken for the house, write it down like a sale at cost. Count a few of these small lines each week. When the people around the shop know the count happens, most of the loss stops.

The records that matter

A provision store doesn't need an accountant. It needs four things kept every day:

  1. A sales book, closed each evening against the cash, the transfers and the POS.
  2. A stock record book for your top items, with a running balance.
  3. The debtors' book.
  4. A note of every naira that leaves the till for something other than change.

With those, you can answer the questions that decide whether the shop grows: what did I sell, what did it cost me, who owes me, and where did the rest go. Without them, busy and broke can go on for years.

Then, and only then, grow

When the records agree with the shelf and the drawer for three months running, you'll know your real monthly profit. That's the figure that tells you whether to add a fridge, take the shop next door, or open a second branch. If you get to that last one, how to manage two shops is the next thing to read.